As the 2008 U.S. presidential election unfolds, it seems unlikely that relations with Canada will play much of a role in the campaign.  Barack Obama caused a minor stir earlier in 2008 when he disparaged the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a “big mistake,” stating he’d always opposed the agreement, and suggested that he would renegotiate it if elected.  Officials in Canada and Mexico were understandably displeased, and pointed out that renegotiations would not consist of unilateral demands from the U.S.  David Emerson, Canada’s Trade Minister, pointedly observed that Canada is the top supplier of oil to the U.S., and that re-opening NAFTA could endanger U.S. access to Canadian oil, gas, and energy.  Subsequently, a memo from officials at the Canadian consulate in Chicago surfaced, revealing that Obama’s economic advisor, Austan Goolsbee, had assured them that Obama’s speeches were “more reflective of political maneuvering than policy.”  Goolsbee declined to comment on the memo, while the Obama campaign vaguely denied having done any back-channel reassuring.  By June, however, Obama himself was backing off, admitting that campaign rhetoric can get “overheated,” and pledging that any changes to NAFTA would be mutually agreeable.

Assuming that NAFTA bashing is over and done with, how are American-Canadian relations these days?  By many measures, the countries remain very close.  A few trade disputes, over matters such as lumber and agricultural policy, have simmered for years, and flare up in public opinion now and then, even as they wend through formal dispute-resolution mechanisms (again and again).  But mostly the two countries get along.  In May 2008, without much fanfare, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a bi-national United States and Canadian organization charged with the missions of aerospace warning and aerospace control for North America, celebrated its 50th anniversary.  Military cooperation extends to Afghanistan as well, where Canada is providing nearly as many combat troops as the U.S. on a per capita basis, and those Canadian troops are engaged in heavy fighting (as are British, Dutch, and, of course, American forces).

Canada remains the largest trading partner with the U.S., even if China now looms much larger in the public mind.  For decades, the U.S.-Canada border has been described as the “world’s longest unguarded boundary.”  The border is, of course, open, but perhaps not quite unguarded, as long lines at the road crossings attest.  By June 2009, travelers across the border will require passports.  That deadline has already been pushed back, as the initial U.S. announcement of a change in policy caused a surge in applications in both countries, quickly generating large backlogs.

Changes in border-crossing policy stem from heightened security measures throughout the U.S., and concern that Canada could be an unlocked back door into the country.  Some Canadians bristle at the suggestion of lax security, though embarrassing revelations are not uncommon on both sides of the border.  In May 2008, for instance, the Canadian Auditor General reported that Canadian officials had lost track of more than 40,000 illegal immigrants who should have been deported.

Generally, relations between Canada and the U.S. have been slightly frostier since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.  Against historical pattern, Canada opted not to take part in that campaign, siding with France and Germany, rather than the “Anglo axis” of the U.S., UK, and Australia.  The nadir may have occurred in 2002, when a senior figure in the Canadian Prime Minister’s Office referred to President Bush as a “moron” in the presence of reporters. Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien undertook the unusual and embarrassing step of publicly contradicting the insult.

Chrétien retired late in 2003, and his successor Paul Martin barely held onto power in the general election of June 2004, as his party won the most seats, but only a minority of the total in the House of Commons.  His government lasted about 18 months, before it lost a confidence vote in November 2005.  In the January 2006 general election, Martin lost power to a Conservative minority government, as the Liberal party experienced its worst outcome since 1988.  The Conservative party, under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, presently controls only 127 of 308 seats in the House (Liberals hold 96, the separatist Bloc Quebecois has 48, and the socialist New Democratic Party has 30, with the balance being vacant or in the hands of independents).  However, Harper has proven adept at governing without a majority, and has already managed to stay in power longer, and achieve more, than many predicted immediately after his narrow win. 

One interesting change his government has made is to regularize the Canadian election calendar.  Prime ministers have always enjoyed the power to call elections at any time in a 5-year window; Harper has now relinquished that power.  Hence, Canada’s next scheduled general election will be in October 2009, and federal elections will thereafter continue on a fixed, four-year calendar.  Note, however, that off-calendar elections can still occur in the event that a government loses a vote of confidence.  As of late August 2008, rumors swirl that Canadians will indeed vote this autumn, either because Harper may force an election, if he cannot get agreement on some legislative priorities from opposition parties, or because the Liberals will decide that, following a period of disarray after Martin stepped down, they’re ready for a rematch.

In short, whether U.S.-Canadian relations improve or sour depends not only on the outcome of the American election, but also on whether Canada also goes to the polls soon.  Canadian and American parties do not match perfectly, but it is probably safe to say that relations have been warmest in modern times when the American president was a Republican and the Canadian Prime Minister a Conservative.  Brian Mulroney, Prime Minister from 1984 to 1993, was so close to Ronald Reagan that he was one of only a handful of eulogists at Reagan’s funeral.  Conservative John Diefenbaker puzzled Democrat John Kennedy, and it seems clear from memoirs that no love was lost between Republican Richard Nixon and Liberal Pierre Trudeau. Invariably, the U.S. occupies a greater space in the Canadian mind than vice versa.

In fact, away from the elite level, it is a long-standing complaint of Canadians that Americans know so little about Canada.  Canadians love to chuckle about stupid or naïve questions from Americans: “Oh you’re from Canada? My sister is dating a guy from Toronto, Bruce Goulet. Do you know him?”  Alas, Canadians turn out not to be very expert in their own history.  A poll done this past Canada Day (July 1, 2008) found that Canadians were slightly better at answering questions about basic historical facts pertaining to the U.S. than they were at identifying such facts for their home and native land. For instance, a respectable 28 percent could select Franklin Delano Roosevelt as the longest-serving U.S. President, but only 21 percent could pick William Lyon Mackenzie King as Canada’s longest-serving Prime Minister, even though he held the office for more than 20 years.

No pollster even bothers asking Americans trivia questions about Canadian history or geography, so the Canadian complaint about ignorance or indifference from their American cousins is probably well founded.  (Quick! Name the provinces and their capital cities, moving from west to east. It shouldn’t be hard—there are only 10, with the 3 territories for bonus points.)  Canadian complaints would have more sting, though, if only Canadians knew a little more about their own history, politics, and geography.  Living next to a cultural leviathan, Canadians watch American TV, read American magazines, and end up reflexively anti-American in a soft, shallow way, even while they’re rather clueless about their own country.  Outside of Quebec, Canadian nationalism is grounded in the desire not to be mistaken for Americans, rather than a very clear understanding of what actually differentiates the two nations.  (To most of the rest of the world, Canadians are nicer, blander versions of Americans, except perhaps when they’re wearing skates and holding hockey sticks, whereupon they become vicious goons.)

In a global perspective, the fact that Canadians and Americans travel rather freely back and forth in great volume, easily immigrate and emigrate, and get along on most issues most of the time is clearly a success story.  We’ve not been to war since before Canada’s founding, and even the sharpest disagreements smack more of minor family quarrels than of dangerous divides.  Whether Obama or McCain visits Harper or Dion, or vice versa, the next American-Canadian summit ought to be a comparatively easy visit on both sides.

Brian J. Gaines was born in Matheson, Ontario, a long way from anywhere you’ve heard of (in most cases).