Paul F. Diehl is the Henning Larsen Professor of political science at Illinois. His areas of expertise include quantitative analyses of international conflict, UN peacekeeping operations, geopolitics, and international law. Professor Diehl is the director of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Teaching Academy. He is also director of the Correlates of War Project, the largest data collection project on international conflict in the world. Here, he discusses the future of U.S. foreign policy under a new President.

Clearly, the next president, whether it is Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain, will have a number of different foreign policy issues to address. But the first topic almost certainly would be troop involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. How do you foresee each of the candidates handling this issue?

Over time, the positions of the two candidates on Iraq have become more convergent as the situation on the ground has become more convergent.  Senator Obama no longer speaks about beginning troop withdrawals on the first day of his presidency and Senator McCain is more circumspect about keeping troops in place for an unlimited period of time.  The candidates' actual policies will differ more in terms of the pace of withdrawal and are likely to be governed more by changes in Iraq (e.g., increased violence, better functioning national army) than their previous campaign rhetoric.  The range of choice could also be narrowed by an agreement between the U.S. and Iraqi governments on a framework for withdrawal, something that almost came to fruition this past summer.

Afghanistan may become the "new Iraq" as the violence increases and government structures break down. Senator Obama has indicated that he favors increasing American troop presence by 10,000, transferring troops from the Iraqi theater to Afghanistan.  Senator McCain has indicated he favors the same strategy that was successful in Iraq. This presumably means a troop surge, although he has not specified the number of troops this might involve or how long they might be deployed.

The "War on Terror" has led many to look at Pakistan as a likely haven for many groups wishing to harm the U.S. How likely is a prolonged military operation in Pakistan, and how prominent has each candidate made this issue?

A great deal of criticism has been directed against Senator Obama for his statements about using military force within Pakistani borders without the permission of the host government.  Yet his professed policy lists a number of narrow conditions for such actions, often dealing the politically popular goal of killing Osama bin Laden.  Senator McCain would not necessarily pursue a different policy, but has indicated that publicly stating one's intentions is a diplomatic blunder.  Indeed, President Bush has already authorized covert and overt military actions across the border into Pakistan, but none of these are extensive or prolonged and this is unlikely to change with a new president.

Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan are obvious situations to which the new President will have to look for solutions. What are some other topics that are sure to be atop his agenda, and why?

There are likely to be several continuing issues on the foreign policy agenda of the new president, largely dictated by external events.  Broadly, the United States needs to construct a strategy on how to interact with Russia, whether as a partner or an enemy; this may vary across the wide variety of issues (e.g., trade, security, human rights) that will arise.  Addressing nuclear proliferation challenges from North Korea and Iran will also merit attention.  Past agreements have largely failed to address those threats, and the new president will need to decide what mixture of multilateral diplomacy, unilateral initiatives, and military coercion will be necessary.  Finally, domestic economic pressures stemming from a recession may lead the new president to take a more protectionist stance on trade broadly, and NAFTA or other hemispheric initiatives in particular.

In contrast, to the major issues, and number of other situations could perhaps draw less attention, such as African conflicts or the U.S. relationship with socialist Latin American regimes. What do you think it will take for Obama or McCain to seek to increase political engagement in these areas? What are some other issues that may be given lower precedence?

Presidents are limited in how many priorities can be tackled at once, and domestic economic woes from the financial crisis are likely to dominate executive and Congressional attention for at least 2009.  Assuming that events in Africa or Latin America do not possess significant threats to U.S. interests, it is unlikely that will be placed high on the new president's agenda.  Furthermore, a traditional foreign policy focus -- the Arab-Israeli conflict -- is also unlikely to prompt new American peace initiatives, given prospective changes in the Israeli government and the continuing divide between Palestinian factions.