The Japanese are keenly aware of the fragility of their achievements. Sixty years ago, the country lay in ruins, the casualty of its own disastrous policies and behavior. There were many

The ability of Japanese leaders and the Japanese people to quickly come to an accommodation with their American conqueror and occupier was the most important reason for Japan’s resurrection. Watching Iraq tear itself apart today under U.S. occupation, Japan’s singleness of purpose and the alacrity of its response are all the more impressive. Virtually overnight, the Japanese people transformed themselves from “100 million balls of fire” (as Japanese wartime propaganda put it) to “100 million penitents.” They dedicated themselves to recovery and reintegration into the world system. There was dissent, of course, but since 1960 there has been no serious challenge to the national consensus.

The new constitution, written in English by Occupation personnel and translated into Japanese, which Japan adopted in 1947, was also of overarching importance. The extremely idealistic document, which among other things stipulated equal rights for women and famously declared in Article 9 that Japan would eternally foreswear the maintenance of armed forces and the use of war as an instrument of national policy, also shaped postwar Japan.

The Cold War solidified the bond between Japan and the U.S. In 1949, the Chinese Communist Party took control of China, and in 1950 the Korean War began. The United States needed Japan as a “bulwark against Communism” in the Far East, and Japan benefited from the stimulation to its economy provided by U.S. bases in Japan and by its economic relationship with the United States. The U.S. encouraged Japan’s economic recovery, transferring technology at bargain-basement prices; and the Japanese dedicated themselves to developing their industrial base and accepted what the historian John Dower has called a relationship of “subordinate independence” with the United States. By the 1960s, Japan was enjoying sustained double-digit growth and was well on its way to becoming an economic superpower.

The problems Japan faces today are in large measure the consequence of adjustments to this postwar arrangement. By the 1980s, Japan was no longer an economic protégé of the U.S. but was regarded with suspicion by many Americans as a predatory competitor. And with the end of the Cold War, Japan was no longer essential as an anti-communist ally, and criticism of Japan’s cleavage to Article 9 and its unwillingness “to pull its own weight” in defense matters mounted. These criticisms reached a crescendo during the first Gulf War of 1990-91, when Japan argued that its constitution barred it from participating in the anti-Saddam alliance. The U.S. charged that Japan was content to sit on the sidelines, reaping profits while American blood was being spilt to protect Japan’s vital Middle East oil supply. Stung by this criticism, the Japanese government ultimately contributed an estimated $13 billion to defray the cost of the war. But feelings of humiliation were not easily dissipated and reinforced longstanding calls by conservatives to revise the constitution to allow Japan to contribute to its own defense and regional security in a way commensurate with its economic power.

Despite the prohibitions of Article 9, Japan has one of the strongest militaries in the world, with 240,000 personnel under arms. Its military expenditures for 2006 were $43.7 billion, fifth largest in the world after the U.S., Britain, France, and China. As of January 2007, the Japan Defense Agency was upgraded to a cabinet-level Ministry of Defense.

Japan justifies its possession of a military on the basis of the inalienable right to self-defense and has historically refused to become involved in international conflicts. Since the Gulf War debacle, however, the government has implemented laws that make it possible for Japan to participate in non-combat and support roles. This enabled Japan to send 600 troops to Iraq in a non-combat capacity in 2004 (they withdrew in 2006). Japan also contributes one-fifth of the U.N.’s budget for peacekeeping operations.

Japan faces real threats. North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and has successfully tested missiles that are capable of hitting Japan. China is steadily arming itself and becoming more assertive. Middle East instability threatens Japan’s oil supply. Despite these challenges, the Japanese people strongly oppose revision of their “peace constitution,” recently forcing a conference on constitutional revision planned for this April to be postponed until 2010 at the earliest.

The source of Japan’s power is its economy, but the Japanese economy is being sorely tested. Japan emerged only recently from a prolonged period of economic stagnation, recession, and deflation that lasted more than a decade. The aftermath of the “bubble economy” of the 1980s, which collapsed in 1989-90, continues to be felt; and competition from China, Korea, Taiwan, and most recently India have exacerbated the situation.

The most serious threat to Japan’s economy, though, is domestic. With a birthrate of only 1.23 births per woman of childbearing age in 2006 (est.), far below the replacement rate of 2.1, the Japanese population will decline in coming years. The United Nations Population Division has predicted that, at current birth rates, the Japanese population will fall from a current high of more than 127 million to close to 100 million by 2050. With an average life expectancy of 81.25 years, the longest in the world, Japan is a rapidly aging society that will soon become a land of retirees supported precariously by a narrowing base of taxpaying workers.

Immigration is one possible solution to this problem. The United Nations estimates that Japan could maintain its labor force at current levels if it allowed 600,000 new immigrants into Japan each year. For comparison, the United Kingdom, another island nation, admitted just 147,700 immigrants in 2004. Japan has little history of large-scale immigration and prides itself on the homogeneity of its population, so this is an unthinkable figure. Admitting any significant number of immigrants, many Japanese fear, would alter Japanese culture beyond recognition. Moreover, they regard present-day European and American struggles to assimilate large immigrant populations as a warning to avoid this path.

Another obvious solution to the population crisis is for Japanese women to have more babies. The government and conservative moralists avidly promote this idea. But Japan also needs women to work. Twenty-seven million Japanese women have jobs, constituting nearly half the Japanese labor force. An increasing number of women are opting to postpone marriage—or not marry at all—and continue working. The average age for a Japanese woman to marry was 27.8 in 2004, and on average she had her first baby at 28.9. By contrast, American women marry two and a half years earlier and have their first baby at 25.2. There were 5.7 marriages per thousand people in Japan in 2004, compared to 7.5 in the U.S.

Despite their importance in the workforce, however, women’s talents are not fully utilized. Japan ranks forty-second, just above Macedonia, on the scale of “gender empowerment” of the United Nations Development Program. Japanese women occupy only 10.1 percent of managerial positions compared to 42.5 percent for women in the U.S.

Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan virtually without interruption for more than 60 years, wants to meet these challenges by adjusting and reinforcing Japan’s postwar system. It is seeking to reinforce the resolve of the Japanese people through the systematic inculcation of patriotism in the schools, which since 1999 have been required by law to fly the national flag and sing the national anthem, both of which are controversial because of wartime associations. New textbooks have been approved that seek to instill pride by minimizing Japan’s wartime aggression and emphasizing heroic self-sacrifice for the nation. Viewed as a glorification of Japanese imperialism, this has caused outrage among Japan’s Asian neighbors, creating a major foreign policy headache for Japan.

The Japanese believe that a strong system of international institutions insulates them from the caprices of power politics and allows them to exercise their influence in the international arena. Japan is the world’s second largest donor to the United Nations, contributing more than 19 percent of the U.N.’s budget; and with U.S. support Japan continues to lobby for a permanent seat on the Security Council.

Japan has also become more assertive bilaterally and multilaterally. In August, Prime Minister Abe made an official visit to India, seeking to strengthen ties with the South Asian nation as a counterweight to China; and Japan is actively involved in Middle East diplomacy and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Despite significant challenges, both foreign and domestic, Japan, with its highly educated and hardworking population and its strong relationship with the U.S., will remain a stable and estimable force in the world for the foreseeable future.